Political Identity of Young Generation in Taiwan, 1995-2015

Lin Thung-Hong

Abstract

Does the younger generation support Taiwan independence over reunification, and would they therefore vote for the pan-green camp to address economic or phychological dissatisfaction in Taiwan? Earlier studies imply as much, but their empirical results are biased consequent to methodological flaws. In this study, we introduced the Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) to estimate economic return, political attitudes, and identity politics among different groups. Our statistical results are more complex than the simplified argument of earlier studies. Said results indicate that claiming an association between economic inequality and the political attitudes of the youth is difficult. In contrast, national identity and democratic value may be the most important determinants of the generational cleavage of voting behavior in Taiwan. In addition, the national identity and democratic value of the young generation may not materialize as support for the pan-green camp. The young generation may be attracted by radical partisans who claim to be left wing and advocate for Taiwan independence.

 

Keywords: Age, Cohort, Generational Politics, Period, Taiwan


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