Determinants of Out-Migration in Asia-Pacific Countries: Peace, Economic Growth, Population Density, and Poverty

Sirilius Seran, Desmon Redikson Manane

Abstract

International out-migration remains an important demographic and socioeconomic phenomenon in the Asia-Pacific region and may be associated with economic, demographic, and security-related conditions. This study examines the relationships between the Global Peace Index (GPI), economic growth, population density, poverty, and out-migration across 26 Asia-Pacific countries. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed using secondary data obtained from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the World Bank, and the Institute for Economics and Peace. Descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares method were applied. Selected variables were logarithmically transformed, and diagnostic tests were conducted to assess the main regression assumptions. The results show that population density is positively and statistically associated with out-migration, whereas economic growth exhibits a negative and statistically significant association. The Global Peace Index also has a negative coefficient, although its relationship with out-migration is significant only at the 10% level. Poverty is positively associated with out-migration but is not statistically significant. The model explains approximately 34.7% of the cross-country variation in out-migration and is jointly significant at the 10% level. These findings indicate that out-migration in the Asia-Pacific region is associated with interconnected demographic, economic, and institutional conditions. However, because the analysis is based on a relatively small cross-sectional sample, the results should be interpreted as exploratory associations rather than causal effects. The study contributes to migration research by integrating peace-related, economic, demographic, and poverty indicators within a single cross-country analytical framework.

 

Keywords: out-migration; Global Peace Index; economic growth; population density; poverty; Asia-Pacific.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55463/hkjss.issn.1021-3619.67.7


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